Diminishing Hope for Sarkozy's Reelection

Sarkozy, the first incumbent not to win in the first round since 1958 must gain the support of over half of the radical right in order to win, while Hollande must make up for a generally poor showing for the left where communist Jean-Luc Melenchon only gained 11.1 percent of the vote. Surveys predict that Hollande will beat out Sarkozy by a 56 percent to 44 percent margin in the next round.  To secure the remaining votes which once belonged to Ms. Le Pen, the elections will have to veer to the right, reflected in Sarkozy’s repeated appeals to anti-immigration and France’s historically Christian values.  However, if projections are true and Holland wins by a ten point margin, it would signal the first Socialist president for France since 1995.  Hollande’s victory has already increased uncertainty in markets as he pledged to boost government spending and cut French debt along with a 75 percent tax on the wealthy.  Additionally, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Sarkozy have recently introduced a treaty on budget austerity, Hollande would amend it to include economic growth on top of the cost-cutting.  Although Hollande claims that Germany is taking his advice and reducing its austerity, investors are still worried that a shift in power may cause a rift in the Eurozone. What is certain, however, is this projected victory displays that Sarkozy’s ideals will become a thing of the past as critics say that extreme right policies will sacrifice the European unity that World War II was fought to establish.  

-Jesse Chai